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Reza Habibisaravi1 
, Hamidreza Khankeh2 , Seyed Hossein Hosseini3 , Nahid Aghaei1 , Zoya Hadinejad1 , Fariba Ghasemihamedani4 , Mohammad Javad Moradian *5
, Hamidreza Khankeh2 , Seyed Hossein Hosseini3 , Nahid Aghaei1 , Zoya Hadinejad1 , Fariba Ghasemihamedani4 , Mohammad Javad Moradian *5
1- Pre-hospital Emergency Department, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
2- Department of Emergency and Disaster Health, University of Social Welfare & Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. & QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité, Berlin, Germany.
3- Amol School of Paramedical Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
4- Research Center for Emergency and Disaster Resilience. Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic, of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
5- School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. ,moradianshiraz@gmail.com
2- Department of Emergency and Disaster Health, University of Social Welfare & Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. & QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité, Berlin, Germany.
3- Amol School of Paramedical Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
4- Research Center for Emergency and Disaster Resilience. Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic, of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
5- School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. ,
Abstract: (7 Views)
Background: Mass gatherings pose significant public health challenges due to the potential for infectious disease transmission. The Arbaeen religious event is among the largest annual gatherings worldwide. Although COVID-19 is less a global concern, the emergence of new variant and regression in preventable behavior necessitate a risk reassessment particularly for high-density events like Arbaeen ceremony.
Methods: A cross-sectional expert-based study was conducted in 2025 using the latest WHO COVID-19 mass gathering risk assessment tool (2022 version). The participants included 98 experts from epidemiology, infectious diseases, and health in disaster and emergency across medical universities of Iran. The final risk score was derived through consensus and scoring matrices.
Results: Out of 98 respondents, the mean age was 49 years; average work experience was 19 years. The overall risk level for Arbaeen 2025 was categorized as "very high" in epidemiology and health in disaster and emergency and "medium" in infectious diseases. The mean risk evaluation scores were 5.48±0.38, 5.73±0.22, and 6.37±0.36, respectively. Risk mitigation indices showed inadequate preparedness in epidemiology (22.1±3.6) versus infectious diseases (55.3±12.3). The overall risk level through all specialties estimated as “high”.
Discussion: The study highlights significant public health risks linked to the Arbaeen mass gathering post-COVID-19, emphasizing gaps between risk awareness and mitigation. Effective management requires multi-sectoral coordination, evidence-based policies, and proactive measures to prevent outbreaks and ensure regional and international safety.
Conclusion: Arbaeen 2025 poses a substantial COVID-19 resurgence risk. Despite increased societal tolerance, proactive risk communication, cross-border coordination, and targeted control strategies are urgently needed.
Methods: A cross-sectional expert-based study was conducted in 2025 using the latest WHO COVID-19 mass gathering risk assessment tool (2022 version). The participants included 98 experts from epidemiology, infectious diseases, and health in disaster and emergency across medical universities of Iran. The final risk score was derived through consensus and scoring matrices.
Results: Out of 98 respondents, the mean age was 49 years; average work experience was 19 years. The overall risk level for Arbaeen 2025 was categorized as "very high" in epidemiology and health in disaster and emergency and "medium" in infectious diseases. The mean risk evaluation scores were 5.48±0.38, 5.73±0.22, and 6.37±0.36, respectively. Risk mitigation indices showed inadequate preparedness in epidemiology (22.1±3.6) versus infectious diseases (55.3±12.3). The overall risk level through all specialties estimated as “high”.
Discussion: The study highlights significant public health risks linked to the Arbaeen mass gathering post-COVID-19, emphasizing gaps between risk awareness and mitigation. Effective management requires multi-sectoral coordination, evidence-based policies, and proactive measures to prevent outbreaks and ensure regional and international safety.
Conclusion: Arbaeen 2025 poses a substantial COVID-19 resurgence risk. Despite increased societal tolerance, proactive risk communication, cross-border coordination, and targeted control strategies are urgently needed.
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This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-By-NC), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
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