Volume 11, Issue 4 (Summer 2026)
Health in Emergencies and Disasters Quarterly 2026, 11(4): 303-310 |
Back to browse issues page
Ethics code: IR.MAZUMS.REC.1404.114
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Habibisaravi R, Khankeh H, Hosseini S H, Aghaei N, Hadinejad Z, Ghasemihamedani F et al . Risk Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission During the Arbaeen Mass Gathering in 2025. Health in Emergencies and Disasters Quarterly 2026; 11 (4) :303-310
URL: http://hdq.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-749-en.html
URL: http://hdq.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-749-en.html
Reza Habibisaravi1 
, Hamidreza Khankeh2 , Seyed Hossein Hosseini3 , Nahid Aghaei1 , Zoya Hadinejad1 , Fariba Ghasemihamedani4 , Mohammad Javad Moradian *5
, Hamidreza Khankeh2 , Seyed Hossein Hosseini3 , Nahid Aghaei1 , Zoya Hadinejad1 , Fariba Ghasemihamedani4 , Mohammad Javad Moradian *5
1- Department of Pre-hospital Emergency, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
2- Department of Emergency and Disaster Health, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. & QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité, Berlin, Germany.
3- Department of Paramedicine, Amol School of Paramedical Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
4- Research Center for Emergency and Disaster Resilience, Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
5- Department of Health in Disasters and Emergencies, School of Health Management and Medical Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. ,moradianshiraz@gmail.com
2- Department of Emergency and Disaster Health, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. & QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité, Berlin, Germany.
3- Department of Paramedicine, Amol School of Paramedical Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
4- Research Center for Emergency and Disaster Resilience, Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
5- Department of Health in Disasters and Emergencies, School of Health Management and Medical Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. ,
Abstract: (1618 Views)
Background: Mass gatherings pose significant public health challenges due to the potential for infectious disease (ID) transmission. The Arbaeen religious event is among the largest annual gatherings worldwide. Although COVID-19 is less of a global concern, the emergence of new variants and regression in preventive behavior necessitate a risk reassessment particularly for high-density events like the Arbaeen ceremony.
Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional, expert-based study was conducted in 2025 using the latest version of the WHO COVID-19 mass-gathering risk assessment tool (2022). The participants included 98 experts in epidemiology (EPI), IDs, and disaster and emergency health from Iranian medical universities. The final risk score was derived through consensus and scoring matrices.
Results: Out of 98 respondents, the mean age was 49 years; average work experience was 19 years. The overall risk level for Arbaeen 2025 was categorized as “very high” in EPI and health in disaster and emergency (HDE) and “medium” in IDs. The mean risk evaluation scores were 5.48±0.38, 5.73±0.22, and 6.37±0.36, respectively. Risk mitigation indices showed inadequate preparedness in EPI (22.1±3.6) compared with IDs (55.3±12.3). The overall risk level across all specialties was estimated as “high”.
Conclusion: Arbaeen 2025 poses a substantial risk of COVID-19 resurgence. Despite increased societal tolerance, proactive risk communication, cross-border coordination, and targeted control strategies are urgently needed.
Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional, expert-based study was conducted in 2025 using the latest version of the WHO COVID-19 mass-gathering risk assessment tool (2022). The participants included 98 experts in epidemiology (EPI), IDs, and disaster and emergency health from Iranian medical universities. The final risk score was derived through consensus and scoring matrices.
Results: Out of 98 respondents, the mean age was 49 years; average work experience was 19 years. The overall risk level for Arbaeen 2025 was categorized as “very high” in EPI and health in disaster and emergency (HDE) and “medium” in IDs. The mean risk evaluation scores were 5.48±0.38, 5.73±0.22, and 6.37±0.36, respectively. Risk mitigation indices showed inadequate preparedness in EPI (22.1±3.6) compared with IDs (55.3±12.3). The overall risk level across all specialties was estimated as “high”.
Conclusion: Arbaeen 2025 poses a substantial risk of COVID-19 resurgence. Despite increased societal tolerance, proactive risk communication, cross-border coordination, and targeted control strategies are urgently needed.
Type of article: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/06/28 | Accepted: 2025/10/24 | Published: 2026/06/21
Received: 2025/06/28 | Accepted: 2025/10/24 | Published: 2026/06/21
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
Copyright © The Author(s);
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 (CC-By-NC 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
Contact Information
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 (CC-By-NC 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
Contact Information
